The Full Picture 2019-2025
When reviewing the Steiner Ranch housing market over the past several years, it is essential to separate long-term trends from short-term distortions. The period from 2019 through 2025 includes one of the most unusual housing cycles in modern history, and any meaningful analysis must account for that context.
From 2019 through early 2020, Steiner Ranch functioned as a high-demand but relatively balanced market. Inventory levels were constrained but stable, pricing growth was steady rather than extreme, and buyer behavior followed predictable seasonal patterns.
The years 2020 and 2021 were fundamentally different. These were exceptional, non-repeatable market conditions driven by historically low interest rates, pandemic-related lifestyle shifts, and an unprecedented imbalance between supply and demand. Transaction volume surged, competition intensified, and pricing accelerated at a pace that far exceeded long-term norms. While these years are often referenced as benchmarks, they should be viewed as outliers rather than representative of a sustainable market baseline.
Beginning in 2022 and continuing through 2023, the market entered a period of recalibration. Rising interest rates reduced buyer purchasing power, demand moderated, and the pace of sales slowed. This shift did not represent a collapse, but rather a normalization following the extremes of the prior two years. Buyers became more selective, sellers adjusted expectations, and pricing momentum cooled.
By 2024 and into 2025, the market showed signs of stabilization. Prices did decline modestly from peak levels, but the rate of decline slowed and began to level out. Activity remained lower than the peak years, yet transactions continued, particularly for homes that were well-priced and well-positioned within the neighborhood. This period reflects a more balanced environment, where pricing is influenced by fundamentals rather than urgency.
Average Sold Price Down 9% and Median Sold Price Down 5% – What Does This Mean?
It is important to understand that changes in median and average sold prices do not automatically translate to uniform changes in property values across the neighborhood. These metrics are influenced not only by pricing, but by the composition of homes that come to market and ultimately sell. Take a look at how the listing inventory composition changes year over year.
When the price-by-range data is considered alongside overall pricing trends, a meaningful shift in inventory composition becomes clear. In 2024 and 2025, fewer homes entered the market in the higher price ranges, while a greater share of listings occurred in mid-range segments. When fewer high-priced homes sell, both median and average sold prices naturally decline, even if individual home values within specific segments remain relatively stable.
This is why broad statements such as “values are down 5%” or “values are down 9%” oversimplify what is actually happening. The data indicates that part of the price movement reflects a change in which homes were selling, not simply what those homes were worth. In practice, pricing outcomes varied significantly based on location within Steiner Ranch, lot characteristics, condition, upgrades, and competition at the time of listing.
What I Observed in 2025
What I observed in 2025, having personally represented approximately 7% of all homes sold in 78732, is that buyers are not in a hurry. Buyers are no longer rushing out to see new listings the first weekend they hit the market, nor are they making immediate decisions after a single showing. Instead, they are taking time to compare options, revisit properties, and thoughtfully evaluate value before moving forward.
This slower pace does not indicate a lack of demand. It reflects a market where buyers feel they have choices. That shift has direct implications for sellers, particularly when it comes to days on market. While buyers may be patient, time still works against a listing once it is live. This is something I emphasize consistently in my monthly market reports, and it proved true again this year. With each additional day a home remains on the market, perceived value in the buyer’s mind begins to decline, regardless of whether the home itself has changed.
46% of the Listings Went Under Contract in 60 Days or Less!
Homes that sold in the first two weeks set the tone for the year. Sixty-three of the 198 homes that sold in 78732 in 2025 went under contract within 14 days, representing 32% of all sales. These properties closed for an average of just 1.5% below their original list price. This group reflects sellers who priced correctly from the outset and benefitted from early buyer engagement, minimal negotiation, and strong perceived value.
Another 27 homes, or 14% of the inventory, sold within 15 to 30 days. These properties sold for an average of 3.2% below their original list price, though many had been reduced. Relative to their reduced prices, they sold for an average of just 2.6% below asking. Taken together, 46% of all homes sold in under 30 days and achieved pricing close to list. It is important to recognize that “close to asking price” no longer means what it did during the peak years. In 2020 and 2021, close to asking often meant 3% over list price, which was a documented market condition at the time. That benchmark no longer applies, and sellers who continue to anchor to it are often misreading today’s market.
Thirty-one homes, approximately 16% of the inventory, sold between 30 and 60 days. These properties closed for an average of 6.3% below their original list price and about 4.4% below their reduced list price. While still sellable, these homes typically required either price adjustments or additional time for buyers to become comfortable with value relative to competing options.
Nineteen properties, or about 10% of the inventory, sold between 60 and 90 days. These homes sold for an average of 9.75% below their original list price and approximately 4.4% below their reduced price. When combined with the earlier segments, 72% of all homes sold in 2025 went under contract within 90 days. As a group, those homes sold for a combined average of just 4.2% below their original list price. This is not indicative of a bad market. It reflects a market that continues to reward sellers who price their homes properly from the start.
28% of Sellers Were Way Off!
Once listings crossed the 90-day threshold, outcomes shifted meaningfully. Twenty-two properties, or 11% of the inventory, sold between 90 and 120 days. These homes closed for an average of 12.3% below their original list price and about 4.1% below their reduced price. At this stage, price reductions were no longer strategic adjustments but corrective measures.
Thirty-three properties, representing 17% of the inventory, took more than 120 days to sell. These homes were consistently overpriced relative to market conditions and buyer expectations. On average, they sold for 13.8% below their original list price and approximately 4.1% below their reduced price. Sellers who entered the market believing they could simply wait for the right buyer often discovered that extended time on market did not preserve value. In most cases, it resulted in lower net proceeds than if the home had been priced realistically from the beginning.
Many Homes Didn’t Sell at All
It is also important to note that the statistics discussed above reflect only the properties that actually sold. To truly understand market conditions or to price a specific property accurately, it is just as critical to examine what did not sell and why. In 2025, 338 properties were listed for sale in 78732, yet only 198 of those listings resulted in a closed sale. Of the remaining listings, 46 are still actively on the market, leaving approximately 28% of all listings that either expired or were withdrawn without selling. That portion of the market cannot be ignored. Homes that fail to sell often do so for identifiable reasons, most commonly pricing, positioning, or condition relative to competing inventory. Ignoring these outcomes leads to incomplete conclusions and, in many cases, unrealistic pricing expectations. A thorough market analysis must account for both successful and unsuccessful listings in order to understand true buyer behavior and current value.
What Does It All Mean?
Taken as a whole, the 2025 Steiner Ranch market was neither overheated nor distressed. Prices softened modestly from peak levels and are showing signs of stabilization. Buyers are deliberate, sellers must be strategic, and outcomes are increasingly driven by pricing accuracy, preparation, and market positioning rather than urgency or momentum. In today’s environment, broad averages tell only part of the story. The real insight lies in understanding how pricing, timing, and inventory composition intersect.
We are in a stabilizing market in Steiner Ranch. The extreme conditions of the COVID years are behind us, and the volatility that followed has given way to a more measured, data-driven environment. Prices have adjusted modestly from their peak levels and are now finding firmer footing, with market behavior increasingly guided by fundamentals rather than urgency. This is a market that rewards preparation, precision, and realistic expectations. Buyers are well-informed and patient, while sellers who price their homes correctly from the start continue to see strong results. Value has not disappeared, but strategy matters more than it has in years.
In a market like this, the choice of agent matters more than at any point in the recent past. When buyers are patient and pricing precision is critical, experience, strategy, and true market understanding directly affect outcomes. This is no longer an environment where momentum alone can carry a listing or where surface-level statistics tell the full story. Sellers benefit most from working with an agent who understands the nuances of the Steiner Ranch market, recognizes how inventory mix influences pricing, and knows how to position a home correctly from day one. For homeowners who want to be thoughtful in their decision, I have prepared a guide outlining key questions to ask when interviewing agents, available for download here.
Or, quite simply, you can call me. Having sold over 300 homes in Steiner Ranch and having lived, worked, and closely studied this market for nearly 20 years, I bring a depth of experience that cannot be replicated by short-term market participation or generic data alone.
If you’re planning a move or simply have questions about the market, I’m here to help. Feel free to call or text me at (512) 657-7510 or email me at Elicia@SteinerRanchInfo.com. Don’t forget, you can always visit www.SteinerMarketInfo.com for the latest market statistics on both sales and rentals.
Thank you for your continued support—I’m excited for what’s ahead in 2026!
