Inventory: Elevated but Not Alarming
At 5.9 months, May’s inventory reading sits just below the 6.0 that marked May 2024 – and well above May 2025’s unusually tight 4.7. This May looks a lot like two years ago, not like last year’s compressed market.
The longer arc matters. Inventory started 2026 at 6.7 months – the highest January since I started tracking in 2017 – and has been working lower. April’s dip to 4.6 was a genuine outlier; May’s 5.9 is a partial reversion. Historically, June has tended to hold steady or tick slightly lower as the summer buying season peaks, and new listing volume typically drops from May into June (June 2025 was 37, June 2024 was 39).
With 44 new listings, May supply came in below both May 2025 (49) and May 2024 (52). That is a meaningful counterpoint to any narrative about the market being flooded with inventory. Spring 2026 saw elevated listing volume in March (40) and April (52), but May pulled back – and below recent May norms.
Historically, June listings drop further from May levels (June 2025: 37, June 2024: 39, June 2023: 28). If that seasonal pattern holds, new supply pressure should ease heading into summer, which could help inventory stabilize or decline from the current 5.9 reading.
Pricing Ratios: Three Years of Consistency
Three consecutive Mays. Three identical current-list ratios. The sale-price-to-current-list ratio has been 97% every single May since 2024 – and looking at the broader dataset, this ratio almost never moves outside the 96-99% band regardless of market conditions. The sole exception was 2021, when buyers paid above asking during the pandemic frenzy.
The original-list ratio tells the richer story. At 95%, May 2026 matches May 2024 and sits one point below May 2025. The 2-point spread between the two ratios means a meaningful share of homes required a price reduction before finding a buyer. On a $900,000 home, the difference between 95% and 97% of original list is $18,000 left on the table versus a correctly priced home.
Cash Transactions – 29%, Highest May on Record
May 2026’s 29% cash share is the highest May figure in the dataset, surpassing May 2022’s 23%, May 2025’s 18%, and May 2024’s 14%. Combined with April’s 23%, this marks two consecutive months of elevated cash activity – a notable shift from the 2024 baseline.
An important caveat: cash percentage is highly volatile month to month. January 2026 was 0%. October 2025 was 0%. July 2024 hit 40%. This metric can swing dramatically based on a handful of transactions. Two elevated months is worth noting, but three months would be needed to call it a structural shift.
The practical implications are real regardless. For sellers, nearly 1 in 3 buyers arriving without a financing contingency means faster closings and fewer complications. For financed buyers, the elevated cash environment means leaning into what makes a financed offer competitive: speed, clean terms, strong earnest money, and minimal contingencies.
Rental $/SF: A Real Decline That Deserves Honest Assessment
At $1.34 per square foot, May 2026 is the lowest May reading since at least 2021 – below May 2024’s $1.47 and well below May 2025’s $1.59. That is a 16% year-over-year decline. Looking at the full history, $1.34 is more consistent with mid-2023 levels ($1.38 in May 2023) than with where the market was trending in 2024-2025. The strong readings of $1.59-$1.72 seen in late 2025 and early 2026 (February 2026 hit $1.72, the highest month in the entire dataset) now look like they may have been a ceiling rather than a new floor.
Sample size (13 leases) is always a factor with small monthly datasets – a single large home commands lower $/SF and can move the average. One month does not confirm a trend, but the direction warrants close watching in June.
Days on Market: Fastest May in the Dataset
The 16-day average DOM for May 2026 is the lowest May figure since I started tracking almost 10 years ago – below May 2025’s already-fast 18 days and well below May 2024’s 32. Properties that hit the rental market in May were absorbed almost immediately. This is not a soft rental market by any measure of demand velocity.
The apparent contradiction – fast absorption but lower $/SF – likely reflects the market finding its equilibrium. April’s 49-day DOM was the cost of landlords holding above market; May’s 16-day average suggests that correction happened. The question for June: do landlords test higher rents again (likely pushing DOM back up), or hold near current levels and maintain fast absorption?
One of the more instructive comparisons in the rental data is April versus May. Both months closed 12-13 leases – essentially identical volume. But April’s average days on market was 49; May’s was 16. Same neighborhood, same tenant pool, three times the wait. That gap has almost nothing to do with demand and everything to do with pricing. When landlords price above what the market will bear, tenants don’t disappear – they simply wait, look at other options, and eventually the landlord adjusts. Volume holds because enough leases eventually close; DOM stretches because it takes longer to find the price where a tenant says yes. May’s 16-day average is the market telling landlords their asking rents were calibrated correctly. April’s 49-day average was the market telling them they weren’t.
What to Watch:
Several dynamics deserve attention heading into June and the summer market:
- Will inventory hold below 6.0? At 5.9, Steiner Ranch is at a tipping point. Fewer new listings in June (historically likely) could push inventory lower. A slower sales pace pushes it back above 6. This is the most important number to watch for July’s report.
- Can the original-list ratio improve beyond 95%? The current-list ratio is essentially locked at 97%. The original-list ratio is where pricing behavior shows up. Getting to 96-97% consistently would signal sellers are genuinely repricing their expectations.
- Is 29% cash a new normal or a spike? The historical data shows this metric is volatile – 0% months are not unusual. Two months above 23% is notable; three months would start to look structural. June’s cash figure will be telling.
- Rental $/SF in June is the pivotal data point. Both June 2024 and June 2025 came in at exactly $1.40/SF. If June 2026 recovers toward that range, May’s $1.34 was an anomaly. If it stays depressed, the rent growth story of 2024-2025 may have reversed.
- Summer slowdown watch. Listings historically drop sharply from May into August (May 2025: 49 to August 2025: 19). If buyer activity holds through that supply compression, inventory could tighten meaningfully by late summer – potentially setting up a more seller-favorable fall than 2025 delivered.
If you’re considering buying or selling a property in Steiner Ranch, it’s crucial to work with an experienced professional who understand the nuances of the local market. For any questions about Steiner Ranch or real estate in general, feel free to reach out at (512) 657-7510 or email me at Elicia@SteinerRanchinfo.com